99.999% of the time things go right!
We spend most of our time worrying about what could go wrong, which is a small portion of the total experience base. Think about how much resource is allocated on trying to manage the unwanted outcomes instead of supporting the majority.
The greatest risk is to take no risk.
The risk management narrative has become a labyrinth of complexity that covers every example you can possibly think of. History tells us that risk failures are mostly attributed to things like overconfidence, personalities, group dynamics and organisational culture, yet we still focus on people as the problem to control rather than a solution to harness.
People are human, we make mistakes all the time, and this is actually a good thing! If we avoid the small mistakes, which society spends a significant amount of time trying to do, we make the large ones more severe.
So how do we create environments, in the words of Nassim Taleb, that are antifragile? That is, systems that increase in capability to thrive as a result of stressors, shocks, volatility, noise, mistakes, faults, attacks, or failures. The more variability you observe in a system, the less black swan prone it is.
In dealing with risk, human factors will defeat procedures every time. So risk needs to be about what people do, and how they naturally behave in decision making. It needs to be about what people think is the risk, understanding their disposition towards risk and finding solutions to enhance behaviours that support objectives.
" Risk management is a human and institutional challenge. It is about habits of mind and organisational culture more than process or structure."
Michael J Mazarr - The True Character of Risk
We know people change because they are shown a truth that influences their feelings, not because they were given endless amounts of logical data.
When changing behaviour towards risk and risk practice, both thinking and feeling are essential. Without risk taking we stop evolving; without risk, we stop dreaming.
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